Win rate
Win rate is the share of closed trades that ended in profit: profitable closed trades divided by all closed trades, written as a percentage.
Open positions are not counted, and platforms do not all document how they count trades closed at exactly zero. TradingView's Percent Profitable keeps them in the total but not in the profitable count, so they lower the figure. The win rate measures how often trades are profitable, not by how much, so it means little without the risk-reward ratio beside it.
This page covers the mechanic; it is not trading advice.
What the win rate counts, and what it leaves out
Only closed trades count. TradingView's Help Center defines Percent Profitable as profitable trades divided by all closed trades and excludes open positions.
Trades closed at exactly zero are the case each platform has to define for itself. The same article says the calculation "excludes 'even' trades from the numerator, though they remain in the denominator": each one lowers the percentage while adding nothing to profit or loss. MetaTrader 5's Strategy Tester report labels its figure Profit Trades (% of total) and does not state how a zero result is counted.
The common error is holding a report's win rate directly against the break-even line of the Risk-reward ratio. That line assumes every trade is profitable or loss-making; zero trades change neither side, so the comparable rate is profitable ÷ (profitable + loss-making). Take 100 closed trades on the 1:2 EUR/USD setup worked below: 30 profitable, 50 loss-making, 20 at zero. The report shows 30.00%, under the setup's 35.00% after-cost line. On the 80 decided trades the rate is 37.50%, and the account is up 30 × $390 − 50 × $210 = $1,200.
A trade closed at its own entry fill price is zero only before commission and Swap. The Spread sits inside the fill prices and is not deducted again, but commission is a separate charge: where the broker applies one, the account result of that trade is loss-making by the commission. A position held past the daily rollover usually carries a swap charge or credit, set by the broker, which moves the result away from zero.
Break-even win rate after costs, worked on EUR/USD
With a cost per trade, the break-even win rate is (S + c) ÷ (S + T), where S is the Stop-loss distance, T the target distance and c the cost, all in pips. A profitable trade nets T − c and a loss-making trade costs S + c; solving p × (T − c) = (1 − p) × (S + c) for p gives the formula. With c = 0 it reduces to the 1 ÷ (1 + R) line of the Risk-reward ratio.
The worked example is a long EUR/USD position of 1 standard lot with the mid-price (the midpoint between bid and ask) at an example 1.1253, a stop 20 pips away at a mid-price of 1.1233 and a pip value of $10 (100,000 × 0.0001). Every distance on this page is measured on mid-prices. Its cost is an assumed 1.0-pip Spread, a level the broker sets. One round trip costs one full spread, half at entry and half at exit when the spread is the same at both ends, so every trade pays $10 on top of the mid-price distance. Commission and slippage are left out.
Break-even win rate, 1:2 after costs
Break-even win rate = (Stop distance + Cost) ÷ (Stop distance + Target distance)- Stop distance (mid 1.1253 to 1.1233)
- 20 pips
- Target distance (mid 1.1253 to 1.1293)
- 40 pips
- Cost per round trip (assumed 1.0-pip spread)
- 1 pip
- Net profitable trade, (40 − 1) × $10
- $390
- Net loss-making trade, (20 + 1) × $10
- $210
Break-even win rate, 21 ÷ 60
35.00%
At that rate, 35 profitable trades in 100 bring in 35 × $390 = $13,650 and 65 loss-making trades cost 65 × $210 = $13,650, so the account breaks even. Before costs the line is 33.33%.
The same cost at three ratios and two stop distances
The cost lifts the 1:1 line most, by 2.50 percentage points on the 20-pip stop. Halving the stop doubles its weight: 1.0 pip is 5% of a 20-pip stop and 10% of a 10-pip stop, so the 1:2 line climbs from 35.00% to 36.67%.
Related terms
Related articles
Common questions
Does a break-even trade count in the win rate?
On TradingView it counts in the total but not as profitable: the Help Center says "even" trades are excluded from the numerator but remain in the denominator. Zero trades add nothing to profit or loss, so the rate to compare with a break-even line is profitable ÷ (profitable + loss-making). On a 1:2 EUR/USD setup at 1.1253 with 30 profitable, 50 loss-making and 20 zero trades, the report shows 30.00% against a decided-trade rate of 37.50%.
What win rate does a 1:2 trade need after costs?
On EUR/USD at an example mid-price of 1.1253, with a 20-pip stop-loss and a 40-pip target measured on mid-prices and an assumed 1.0-pip spread, the break-even win rate is (20 + 1) ÷ (20 + 40) = 35.00%, against 33.33% before costs. A 10-pip stop and 20-pip target with the same cost need (10 + 1) ÷ (10 + 20) = 36.67%, and the line moves with the broker's spread.
How many trades does a win rate need before it means anything?
Enough for the margin of error to clear the break-even line. For independent trades with a constant underlying rate, the normal-approximation 95% margin is ±1.96 × √(p × (1 − p) ÷ n), where p is the observed win rate. At 40% over 50 trades that is ±13.58 percentage points (26.42% to 53.58%), which cannot be told apart from the 35.00% after-cost line of a 1:2 EUR/USD trade at 1.1253 with a 20-pip stop and an assumed 1.0-pip spread. Over 500 trades it narrows to ±4.29 points (35.71% to 44.29%). A risk of ruin figure built on that win rate inherits that uncertainty, magnified, because risk of ruin moves sharply with small changes in the win rate.
Is a win rate above 50% always profitable?
No. The win rate ignores how large each result is, and TradingView's Help Center states that a high percentage is not a guarantee of profitability. At 1:1 on EUR/USD at a mid-price of 1.1253, with a 20-pip stop and target measured on mid-prices and an assumed 1.0-pip spread, a profitable trade nets $190 per standard lot and a loss-making one costs $210, so break-even is 21 ÷ 40 = 52.50%. A 51% win rate there averages 0.51 × $190 − 0.49 × $210 = −$6.00 per trade. Expectancy combines both figures.